A mathematical model is being created to predict changes in the number of fish species and the abundance of individuals per species in rivers, streams and creeks as related to changes in climate for the mid-Atlantic region.

This model will analyze and compare data collected over the course of two years at 23 stream sites to determine statistically significant indicators.  These indicators help predict species changes.

The following two simple models are examples of how a model can be used to predict numbers of species per stream order relative to stream parameters collected in the field.  Our final model is being developed from two years of the data we collect and will incorporate flow and other data from flood and drought models at other institutions.

Quantico Model Species Richness

Stream Order

Stream Order

Cameron Run Model Species Richness

Predicted

Actual

Predicted

Actual

Quantico Data

Cameron Run Data